Understanding Meteorological Changes Following Severe Defoliation during a Strong Hurricane Landfall: Insights from Hurricane Michael (2018)

Abstract Despite prompting persistent meteorological changes, severe defoliation following a tropical cyclone (TC) landfall has received relatively little attention and is largely overlooked within hurricane preparedness recovery planning. Changes to near-track vegetation can modify evapotranspiration for months after passage, thereby altering boundary layer moisture energy fluxes that drive the local water cycle. This study seeks understand potential spatial temporal changes in defoliation-driven conditions using Hurricane Michael (2018) as testbed. In this sensitivity study, two Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations, normal-landscape post-TC scenario, are compared determine how scar placed along Michael’s path alters surface heat fluxes, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation near storm’s track. month foliage reduction, WRF resolves 0.7°C 2-m temperature increase, with greatest occurring at night. Meanwhile, simulations produce sensible latent of +8.3 ?13.9 W m ?2 , respectively, while average humidity decreases from 73% 70.1%. Although accumulated defoliated simulation was larger narrow corridor paralleling downwind track, neither satisfactorily replicated post-Michael patterns recorded by NCEP Stage IV QPE, casting doubt whether enhancement exclusively due scar. analysis provides insight into types may be possible rapid widespread during TC landfall.